With so much at stake for clubs, making premier league predictions is a popular pastime among English punters. It can be especially tempting to back goals in high-pressure fixtures, such as a fight for survival at the bottom of the table.
But how do you make a reliable prediction?
1. Know The Team’s Current Form
One of the most important aspects in assessing any team is their current form. This can be determined by their home and away performances over the course of a season as well as in more recent competitions. The importance of this is heightened by any injuries or suspensions that may affect a team’s performance.
Whether it is the result of a new manager or simply poor individual performances, any team that has suffered a run of defeats is unlikely to be in good form and should therefore be avoided. On the other hand, a team that has been on a winning streak is more likely to be in great form and should therefore be targeted in your premier league predictions.
You can also assess a team’s current form by looking at their results against other teams of a similar standard. For example, Lazio are in 2nd place in Serie A with 62 points while Brescia have just 16 points. Clearly, Lazio are in much better shape and should be a strong favourite for their match against Brescia.
Another way of premier league predictions a team’s current form is by checking their expected goals (xG) figures. These are calculated by comparing and analysing the number of shots each team has made and conceded over the course of a season. If a team’s xG is significantly higher than their opponents then they are likely to win their next match.
Using these metrics can be very helpful when making your premier league predictions. However, it is important to remember that these are only indicative figures and they can sometimes be misleading. For example, a team may be underperforming at home due to an unfavourable venue or they may be on a poor run of form against the same opponent. Nonetheless, they should be considered when making your predictions, as they can give you a sense of the overall strength of each team.
2. Take Note Of The Club’s Performances In Away Events
A team’s away form is a major factor in premier league predictions. If a club has a weaker record on the road than at home, it’s unlikely they will finish as high up the table as they would if their away form was stronger. To determine a team’s away form, FiveThirtyEight’s model runs 20,000 simulations of every game remaining in the season and then calculates an overall predicted final league table.
The top of the table is largely set, with Manchester City firmly in control and Arsenal second with a very comfortable lead over Chelsea. It’s going to take a cataclysmic turn of events for either to drop out of the top four and into the relegation zone.
Outside of those two sides, things are still up in the air. Burnley might have an outside chance of a top-half finish but they’ll need a quick turnaround to make that happen. Sheffield United and Luton Town will also need to be on their toes if they want to avoid the drop.
Brighton and Wolves have both done well to stay out of trouble, with the former having been a bit of a surprise package. Wolves’ considered build-up and ability to bait the opposition press will serve them well if they can sort their leaky defence, which conceded 23 goals in April, the most in a month in any top-flight season. Meanwhile, Brighton’s strong transitions from attack to defense under new manager Graham Potter have been a welcome sight for their fans, and our supercomputer expects the Seagulls to oust Brentford (54.3%) from the bottom three on Saturday.
3. Compare The Clubs Head-To-Head
If you’re a fan of the Premier League, you might be wondering how the top clubs will fare this season. There are a lot of variables when it comes to predicting the outcome of a match, but there are some factors that will help you narrow down your betting options. For starters, you should consider the teams’ current form and how they are doing against other clubs. Then, you should look at the team’s transfer history and how it may affect their future performance. Finally, you should take note of the head-to-head record between the two teams.
The Premier League top four is usually determined by a combination of goal difference, goals scored, and head-to-head records. The first two factors are straightforward, but the third can be a bit more complex. If two teams have the same number of points after three games, then the team with a better goal difference will finish higher than the other. This is true whether both teams have scored the same number of goals or one has more than the other.
It’s hard to see Manchester City or Liverpool dropping out of the top four this season, especially given their impressive start to the season. Chelsea and Tottenham also look strong, and their additions of Frenkie de Jong and Marc Cucurella should give them a boost in attacking power.
Despite their early season struggles, Manchester United should still be able to make a solid push for the Champions League places. They have a decent squad and should be able to get some key players back from injury soon.
While promoted sides like Fulham, West Ham, and Wolves will likely struggle a little bit at the beginning of the season, they should be able to survive if they can improve their defensive depth. Meanwhile, Brighton, Aston Villa, and Brentford will be fighting to avoid the relegation zone unless they can make some smart moves in the transfer market.
If you want to learn more about the Premier League, check out Pinnacle’s Premier League Insights podcast, available on SoundCloud, Apple Podcasts, and Spotify. The podcast combines betting market odds from Pinnacle with Infogol’s performance stats to give you the best insights into the latest Premier League fixtures.
4. Check The Absences Of Key Players
The dust has barely settled on the 2022-23 season, but already football fans are turning their attention to next season. There is so much to look forward to: will Manchester City finally break their duck and win four consecutive titles, will Liverpool eke out a top-two finish despite losing Sadio Mane, and can relegated clubs like Burnley, Sheffield United or Luton Town stage a surprise escape?
A lot will depend on the fitness of key players. Teams that have had a full pre-season or a full calendar of friendly matches will be well placed to get off to a good start. However, if the club has been involved in a major tournament or has been away on international duty then the team may take time to get into their stride. This will impact on the quality of their performance and it’s important that punters check this when deciding which team to back.
Another factor to consider is the injury record of the key players. If a player has been ruled out with an injury then it’s not wise to place a bet on them. This is because there is always the chance that they could be ruled out for longer than expected or even miss the entire season. It’s also worth noting that the injured players’ performances will be affected if they are replaced by other players, so this should also be taken into consideration when making your betting predictions.
One of the most popular markets for Premier League games is Over 2.5 goals, which is a bet on both teams scoring at least three goals. The odds on this market tend to be quite low, so it can be a profitable option if you’re looking for a high-scoring game. However, it’s important to remember that not all games in the Premier League end in a goal-fest.
It’s still too early to predict the final Premier League table, but Manchester City and Liverpool are clear favourites. Manchester City have strengthened their squad in the summer and are one of the most underrated teams when it comes to expected points, while Liverpool looked impressive in the second half of last season despite starting slowly.
Predicting the outcomes of Premier League matches is a challenging task due to the unpredictable nature of sports. While various factors such as team form, player injuries, and head-to-head records can provide some insights, the game of football is full of surprises, and underdogs can often emerge victorious against stronger opponents. It’s essential for fans and analysts alike to approach predictions with a degree of caution and acknowledge that anything can happen on the field.
How accurate are Premier League predictions? Answer: Premier League predictions can vary in accuracy depending on the methods used and the expertise of the predictor. While some predictions may be based on statistical models and historical data, others might rely on intuition or gut feelings. However, due to the unpredictable nature of football, no prediction can be completely foolproof. Even the most accurate models can sometimes fail to anticipate surprise results, upsets, or exceptional individual performances. It’s crucial to view predictions as educated guesses rather than certainties.
FAQ 2: What factors should be considered when making Premier League predictions? Answer: Several key factors should be considered when attempting to predict Premier League outcomes. These include:
- Team Form: Assessing recent performances and results can provide insights into a team’s current level of play and confidence.
- Player Availability: Injuries or suspensions of key players can significantly impact a team’s chances of success.
- Head-to-Head Records: Previous encounters between two teams can indicate patterns or strengths and weaknesses.
- Home Advantage: Teams often perform better when playing on their home turf due to familiar surroundings and supportive crowds.
- Tactical Approach: Analyzing the playing style and tactical strategies of each team can offer insights into how they might approach a particular match.
- Motivation and Stakes: Consider the importance of the match for each team. Teams fighting to avoid relegation or competing for a title may display different levels of determination.
- Weather Conditions: Extreme weather can affect the dynamics of a match and impact certain playing styles.
Managerial Decisions: Coaching decisions, such as team selection and substitutions, can influence the outcome of a match